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At first, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a strong position concerning Ukraine. After delivering statements of "significant consequences" in August if Putin carried on blocking ceasefire talks, the former president finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially hindered Putin's capacity to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or European input, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business past, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying giving Putin a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in position the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its military have been unable to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that represent a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Russian forces a open route to Kyiv in case he later choose to resume the war.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no equivalent limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "Every radical doctrine and actions must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community trust this commitment on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the plan warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia restart its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to troubling. The proposal would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing forces on the nation's land, thereby preventing the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "major, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not